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HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK (HWO) |
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This article will introduce you to the SKYWARNTM Program, describe how SKYWARNTM relates to the mission of the National Weather Service (NWS), explain how spotter reports are used, and discuss what being a SKYWARNTM Spotter entails.
The National Weather Service
The origins of the NWS can be traced back to the Organic Act, which Congress passed in 1890. The following website contains a detailed discussion of the National Weather Service's mission, its historical and legal basis, and its relationship to other organizations and groups:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/wsom/manual/archives/NA027045.HTML
The NWS is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which is a part of the Department of Commerce. NOAA's NWS is responsible for providing weather service to the Nation. It is charged with responsibility for observing and reporting the weather and with issuing forecasts and warnings of weather and floods in the interest of national safety and the national economy.
In very broad terms, the NWS's priorities for service to the Nation are ranked as follows:
1. Protection of life, 2. Protection of property, 3. Promotion of the Nation's welfare and economy.
The two highest priorities, the protection of life and property, form the core of the NWS's main mission.
Since the NWS's main mission involves the protection of life and property, all NWS employees currently on or scheduled for operational shift-work are designated as emergency employees and must report to or remain at work during emergency or other situations.
Pendleton Weather Forecast Office
The Pendleton Weather Forecast Office (WFO) is one of 126 WFO's staffed and operated Nationwide by the NWS. The Pendleton WFO operates continuously "24/7", every day of the year. At least two people on the Pendleton WFO staff are working operational shifts at all times. With the exception of three staff members, everyone at the Pendleton WFO who works operational shifts has at least a Bachelor's Degree in Meteorology. All shift workers have widely varying weather forecasting experience.
SKYWARNTM Program
Doppler weather radar and weather satellite data are useful tools for identifying areas where the potential may exist for hazardous or severe weather, but these technologies cannot sample the actual weather that occurs at the earth's surface. NWS Doppler radar can measure radial wind speed along the direction of the radar beam so it is useful for detecting strong winds above the earth's surface. Because of the Earth's curvature, the lowest elevation radar beam rises increasingly higher above the earth's surface with increasing distance from the radar antenna. So the radar's ability to sample the lower portions of storms progressively decreases with increasing distance from the radar antenna. This explains why weather radar becomes less effective in sampling storms with increasing distance from the antenna. Doppler radar cannot do the following: measure the size of hail, observe a tornado on the ground, detect actual wind damage, measure snowfall on the ground, or detect where flash flooding is occurring. Only people can observe these weather related phenomena. That is why SKYWARNTM Spotters are such a vital part of the NWS warning process.
The SKYWARNTM Program depends on a grass roots network of volunteer weather spotters who are the eyes and ears of the NWS. The NWS satisfies its mission of protecting life and property by issuing routine weather forecasts, short-term forecasts, and when needed, weather advisories and weather warnings. Your involvement in the SKYWARNTM Spotter Program is in direct support of the NWS's main mission.
Being a SKYWARNTM Weather Spotter requires very little time. Only when really inclement, hazardous, or severe weather occurs would the NWS need to hear from you. Spotters are not required to observe and report the weather on a fixed time schedule. Instead, the weather reports that Spotters provide to the Pendleton WFO are "event driven".
The Pendleton WFO holds SKYWARNTM Spotter Training Classes annually in most of the counties in its County Warning and Forecast Area (CWFA). The training class is free and is 2-hours long. Attendance at s Spotter Training Class qualifies attendees to be enrolled as Weather Spotters in the SKYWARNTM Program.
SKYWARNTM Spotters provide a worthwhile public service by assisting the NWS in advising/warning the public of inclement, hazardous, and severe weather. SKYWARNTM Spotter Network
SKYWARNTM Spotters are members of a broad-based Spotter Network. The commercial telephone system is the primary communications medium for the SKYWARNTM Spotter Network. This network enables two-way voice communications between the Pendleton WFO and individual Spotters.
SKYWARNTM Spotters are authorized to use an unlisted, toll-fee phone number to call the Pendleton WFO with weather reports. The toll-free phone number is unlisted because it is dedicated to the Pendleton WFO's SKYWARNTM Program; therefore, it must not be shared with the general public. Its only legitimate use is in support of the SKYWARNTM Program.
In addition to spotters calling the Pendleton WFO with weather reports, the Pendleton WFO may call spotters for weather reports in areas where weather reports are needed. When the Pendleton WFO calls a spotter, the caller will identify himself/herself as an employee of the Pendleton WFO. Normally the NWS caller will clarify why they are calling you. If the caller does not provide this explanation, then the spotter should request one so that you'll have a better understanding of the motivation for the call. The Pendleton WFO normally calls spotters for weather reports at a reasonable hour. Spotters tell the Pendleton WFO when they prefer the WFO to call them.
Hazardous Weather Outlook and Spotter Activation
The Pendleton WFO issues a Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) daily between 5:00 AM and 7:00 AM. The narrative discussion in the HWO will indicate the potential for hazardous or severe weather over the next seven days in the Pendleton WFO's CWFA. The discussion includes any ongoing and/or expected hazardous or severe weather and any associated "long fuse" watches, warnings, and advisories that are in effect. The discussion does not include "short fuse" warnings that are in effect such as tornado warnings, severe thunderstorm warnings, and flash flood warnings. The HWO contains a “SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT” that suggests the likelihood of a need for Spotter Reports during the next seven days. The SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT will include one of the following three categorical statements:
1. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
If statement # 1 appears in the SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT, then the discussions in the HWO for the short-term period and the long-term period will also contain the following statement:
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
2. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.
3. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.
Spotters use the HWO to obtain a briefing concerning (a) the potential for hazardous or severe weather and (b) the possible need for Spotter reports. Thus, the HWO gives SkywarnTM Spotters a “heads up” for possible “Spotter Activation”.
“Spotter Activation” means two things: (a) Spotters will need to increase their awareness of weather conditions and be prepared to provide weather reports to the Pendleton WFO, and (b) the Pendleton WFO may need to call Spotters for weather reports.
Spotters can read the HWO at the following websites:
1. Pendleton NWS WFO Website: On the homepage, under “Current Hazards”, click on “NE OR & SE WA”.
2. Pendleton SKYWARNTM Website: On the homepage, in the “Main Menu”, under "HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK (HWO)", click on “Current Hazards & HWO”.
Weather Reporting Criteria
As a member of the SKYWARNTM Spotter Network we ask that you be proactive in reporting the occurrence of inclement, hazardous, or severe weather.
As a spotter, you are expected to report certain weather events as these events occur. Thus, your participation in the SKYWARNTM Program is "event-driven" rather than "schedule-driven".
The Pendleton WFO requests that Spotters call the SKYWARNTM toll-free phone number, as soon as possible, when the following conditions are met:
1. The onset or continuation of certain weather conditions or when certain weather thresholds are met or exceeded. These weather conditions and thresholds are specified in the Pendleton WFO's weather reporting criteria . Please call the Pendleton WFO when current weather conditions meet or exceed the SKYWARNTM weather event reporting criteria. Do not assume that somebody else has already called the NWS with a weather report and that your report is not needed.
Also, even though a warning/advisory may be in effect, the Pendleton WFO continues to need reports to verify, update, extend, or cancel the warning/advisory.
2. When injuries or deaths occur, or property damage occurs due to inclement, hazardous, or severe weather.
3. When weather conditions impact safe travel on roads and highways. 4. If inclement, hazardous, or severe weather is occurring and the current forecast does not mention such weather, the Pendleton WFO needs to know about that, too. The Forecaster can then amend the forecast based on the spotter's report, and if need be, notify the public in an advisory or warning.
How Spotter Reports Are Used
Spotter reports help the Pendleton WFO immensely in the warning and forecasting process by virtue of helping the NWS Forecasters to decide when the weather reaches advisory or warning criteria. Spotter reports also help the NWS to verify warnings and advisories and give a clearer picture of the extent and severity of hazardous or severe weather episodes. And spotter reports help the NWS to confirm the accuracy of the current weather forecast. NWS Forecasters need to know if there are discrepancies between the forecast and the current weather conditions. In such situations, weather reports from Spotters will focus Forecaster attention on a forecast that needs to be amended.
Spotter weather reports accomplish several things:
1. Reports help the Pendleton WFO to monitor the weather in its CWFA, as the Doppler Weather Radar coverage of some of the counties in its CWFA is very marginal, at best. The mountains (the Cascades, the Blue Mountains and the Wallowa Mountains) cause radar beam blockage of the lowest radar beam elevation angles, the distances to the nearest weather radars, and the Earth's curvature, all work against good radar coverage of areas that are 100 nautical miles or more from the Pendleton Doppler Radar.
2. Reports provided at the onset of hazardous or severe weather give the NWS Forecasters at the Pendleton WFO a "heads up" as to when we need to issue a warning or an advisory (if one is not already in effect for the hazardous or severe weather being reported).
3. Reports provided while hazardous or severe weather is ongoing help the Pendleton WFO to confirm that a warning or an advisory that is in effect is still valid (i.e., that the warning or advisory agrees with the current weather conditions). 4. The Pendleton WFO uses reports to verify warnings and advisories. While a weather event is evolving and playing itself out, and after the event has ended, the Pendleton WFO forecasters compare reports to the criteria for issuing a warning or an advisory. Thus, the reports help forecasters to determine whether or not a warning or an advisory is, or was, justified.
5. Followup or end-of-event reports update or summarize what happened, after the fact. These reports are especially helpful to NWS forecasters for events involving precipitation; for example, total accumulation of new snowfall from a snowstorm.
6. Reports are disseminated to the news media in a Preliminary Local Storm Report (LSR) that the Pendleton WFO issues. A LSR is a summary of all significant weather reports received from various sources (including SKYWARNTM weather spotters) during a hazardous or severe weather event. LSRs are eventually published in a NWS publication called Storm Data. Keep in mind that normally only the most significant weather reports associated with hazardous and severe weather are included in LSRs and in Storm Data. Weather reports from SKYWARNTM spotters that are published in Storm Data are official and are a matter of public record, as they are deemed to be from reliable sources. As such your weather reports are a permanent record of occurrences of hazardous and severe weather. The reports in Storm Data are used in storm studies. Storm Data reports are also used to update the climatology of hazardous and severe weather in your county. Since the reports in Storm Data are a matter of public record, they are used by the insurance industry for settling insurance claims and by other businesses for various operational and planning purposes.
Making accurate weather forecasts, advisories, and warnings involves detailed analysis of the current weather situation. This requires accurate and timely information. The ground truth information in spotter reports supplements data collected by remote weather sensing devices. The Forecaster mentally integrates all the information and then makes a decision to issue, update, extend, or cancel an advisory or a warning. Often a spotter report is the decisive information that enables the Forecaster to issue a warning with confidence. The sooner a Forecaster issues an advisory or a warning, the longer the lead-time in notifying the public. Thus, time is of the essence in calling in spotter reports.
Weather reports from spotters really do help the NWS Forecasters at the Pendleton WFO to keep tabs on the weather. Spotter reports tell the Forecaster when the weather reaches or exceeds advisory or warning criteria, and just as important, when the weather does not meet advisory or warning criteria. The Forecaster continually performs a “weather watch” while on duty in order to determine if a given weather situation warrants the issuance of an advisory or a warning to protect lives and property. Thus, spotter reports are in the interest of public safety. Spotter reports also help the Pendleton WFO to verify its forecasts, warnings, and advisories and give Forecasters a clearer picture of the extent and severity of hazardous or severe weather episodes. And of course, your reports help the Forecaster to confirm the accuracy of the current NWS public weather forecast in your county. NWS Forecasters need to know if the current forecast is on target or if there are significant discrepancies between the forecast and the current weather conditions. In the case of discrepancies in the forecast, current weather reports from spotters focus the Forecaster's attention on a forecast that needs to be amended.
Amateur Radio SKYWARNTM Nets
SKYWARNTM Nets have been organized in some counties in the Pendleton WFO's CWFA. Spotters who are licensed amateur radio operators (“hams”) are qualified to participate in the SKYWARNTM Net. When activated, the SKYWARNTM Net collects weather reports from hams and relays them to the Pendleton WFO. Until the SKYWARNTM Net is activated, a ham radio spotter's first priority is to report hazardous or severe weather as soon as possible to the Pendleton WFO via landline using the SKYWARNTM toll-free phone number.
All hams are welcome, and encouraged, to participate in the SKYWARNTM Net in their area. Amateur radio operators do not need to be eNrolled as official SKYWARNTM spotters in order to participate in the SKYWARNTM Net. In other words, participation in the SKYWARNTM Net is open to all hams!
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